Just because the number of qualification spots has increased for the FIFA World Cup 26™, the largest edition in history, there are no guarantees that it will be a smooth ride to get there. Far from it.
With two rounds left in South American qualifying, Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador have already booked their places to football’s biggest stage. Meanwhile, Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia and Peru (in order of their current standings) continue to slug it out for the remaining spots. Chile, for their part, have already been knocked out.
As things stand, Uruguay (24 points), Paraguay (24) and Colombia (22) would secure automatic qualification, with Venezuela (18) heading to the FIFA Play-Off Tournament as the seventh-placed team. However, Bolivia (17) remain hot on their heels, and Peru (12) are still in with a chance of pulling off an upset.
Venezuela under pressure to regroup
With six points still up for grabs, Colombia hold a comfortable lead over Venezuela in the race for the final automatic spot, shifting the spotlight towards the battle for a place in the play-off.
Up until the halfway point of the qualifying campaign, it seemed as though Venezuela were on course to make history by reaching their first-ever FIFA World Cup™. Under Argentine coach Fernando Batista, La Vinotinto have earned some notable results, including a 1-0 victory over Paraguay, a 1-1 away draw to Brazil and a dominant 3-0 win against Chile. However, after that, their performances dipped, along with their place in the standings. Defeats against rivals Paraguay (2-1), Chile (4-2) and Ecuador (2-1) have put them under severe pressure with must-win games coming up.
“Before the qualifiers kicked off, I said our main rival wasn’t another team, it was ourselves. That’s why you can’t afford to look back; you have to push forward, focus on the psychological side and build belief in the players that we have what it takes. This is the path we are on today, and it’s what we’re continuing to work on,” Fernando Batista, Venezuela’s coach, told FIFA about the team’s preparations for the qualifiers.
Venezuela’s best-ever finish had been sixth place in qualifying for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™, finishing five points shy of Uruguay, who secured their ticket by defeating Jordan in the play-off.
To seal their spot this time around, they cannot afford to drop points. But it won’t be easy. Venezuela will face Argentina in Buenos Aires followed by a home clash with Colombia, who will be in need of points to guarantee qualification. Oddly enough, the team right on Venezuela’s heels, Bolivia, can do them a massive favour by winning in Colombia on Matchday 17.
Should Venezuela achieve the feat of securing full points in Argentina and Bolivia win at Colombia, Venezuela could leapfrog the Colombians on the final matchday and secure an automatic berth with a victory in the finale in Maturin. They certainly have the striker to do it in Salomon Rondon, whose five goals in qualifying have all come in front of the home fans.
Bolivia hopes reignited
Bolivia are also not giving up hope just yet. With 17 points, they remain just one shy of Venezuela. Like Batista’s side, Bolivia under Oscar Villegas have experienced several ups and downs. The high point of their campaign was three straight victories against Venezuela (4-0), Chile (2-1) and Colombia (1-0). However, their form began to decline, suffering defeats to Argentina (6-0), Ecuador (4-0) and Peru (3-1), among others. Nevertheless, a victory over Chile in their last match reignited their hopes.
Villegas, 55, bears the weight of bringing hope to a nation that hasn’t competed in a World Cup since USA 1994. “The Bolivian FA was looking for someone like me to help drive their programme forward. It’s obviously a work in progress, but we are willing to start from scratch if that’s what it takes. Our approach is built on a unified structure and philosophy”, he told FIFA, adopting a ‘one game at a time’ mindset, without paying attention to the standings and other results. Bolivia now must win at least one of their remaining two matches: away to Colombia and at home against Brazil.
Victory in Colombia for Bolivia and an Argentina win at home against Venezuela would set up an epic final matchday, as a Bolivia triumph at home over Brazil and a Colombia defeat against Venezuela would mean the Bolivians would return to the big dance with the final automatic spot.
Those hopes may well be resting on the shoulders of Miguel Terceros. The 21-year-old has been sensational during this qualifying campaign, scoring six goals, equalling the total of Argentina superstar Lionel Messi. It was an early goal from Terceros that spurred Bolivia to victory over Chile in their last outing and they’ll be looking for something similar in Barranquilla.
Peru’s fate out of their hands
Peru, on the other hand, face a more complicated scenario. With 12 points, they must win both their remaining matches, away to Uruguay and at home to Paraguay, and hope that Venezuela and Bolivia both slip up. Now under Oscar Ibanez, La Albirroja have had two other coaches during the campaign (Juan Reynoso and Jorge Fossati), which is reflected by the team’s inconsistent performances and results.
*Argentina 35 points (+19 Goal Difference)
*Ecuador 25 points (+8 GD)
*Brazil 25 points (+5 GD)
Uruguay 24 points (+7 GD)
Paraguay 24 points (+3 GD)
Colombia 22 points (+4 GD)
Venezuela 18 points (-4 GD)
Bolivia 17 points (-16 GD)
Peru 12 points (-11 GD)
**Chile 10 points (-15 GD)
*qualified
**eliminated
