Reflecting on Nagelsmann’s first two years

A 4-1 defeat at the hands of Japan in early September 2023 proved to be Hansi Flick’s last match in charge of Germany. Die Mannschaft had crashed out of the FIFA World Cup 2022™ in Qatar at the end of the group stage and only managed a solitary win in their next six games, making a fresh start inevitable.

The search for Flick’s successor didn’t take very long, with the German Football Association (DFB) unveiling Julian Nagelsmann on 22 September. The new man was under no illusions about the size of the job in front of him – shaping the future of a team in the midst of a transformation.

Nagelsmann was tasked with leading Germany into a new era, bringing back the joy of playing and moulding a team to challenge for the title at the 2024 UEFA European Championship on home soil.

Thanks in part to the returning Toni Kroos, Nagelsmann breathed new life into the team and created a real sense of euphoria ahead of the EURO. Nevertheless, after some impressive performances in the early stages, the quarter-finals proved to be the end of the road for Die Mannschaft as they fell to a narrow extra-time defeat by eventual champions Spain.

Since then, Nagelsmann has only been able to build on that showing in parts. The next turning point came shortly after the EURO when numerous stars called time on their Germany careers. With the exits of Thomas Muller, Kroos and Manuel Neuer, the Germans also bade farewell to the last remaining members of the squad that had triumphed at the 2014 FIFA World Cup™ in Brazil.

Nagelsmann’s team needed a new identity, one founded on the next generation. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, arguably the two most talented players in the current squad, are widely expected to be the figureheads of the new era, with Joshua Kimmich and Antonio Rudiger leading the way as captains.

The first acid test for Nagelsmann’s newly formed group came just a few weeks after their European Championship exit with the start of the UEFA Nations League. Germany finished the group stage unbeaten with four wins from six games, scoring 18 goals and conceding just four. Even though defeats by Portugal in the semi-finals and France in the third-place play-off would follow, there were clear signs that the team were moving in the right direction.

Tactically, Nagelsmann has relied almost exclusively on a 4-2-3-1 since taking over, with Musiala and Wirtz as wide attacking midfielders and Kimmich initially pulling the strings from the right side of defence. However, the 30-year-old has recently returned to defensive midfield, with Nagelsmann explaining that switch at the International Coaching Congress by saying that Kimmich is “one of two or three players who will always play there for his club”.

If this month’s international window is anything to go by, the Bayern Munich man could be a big miss for his country at right-back.

Rudiger and Jonathan Tah appear to be the go-to central defenders, but otherwise Nagelsmann has rotated heavily recently and given a number of players a chance to stake their claims. The centre-back pairing’s performances earlier this month were far from perfect, but with more match practice, their form should return. When fit, Nico Schlotterbeck will also be an option at the heart of defence.

And then there is the goalkeeper issue – Nagelsmann has made it clear that Marc-Andre ter Stegen is his preferred No1, but only if certain conditions are met, which is not the case at the moment due to Ter Stegen’s ongoing dispute with Barcelona: “In the end, he’ll be our No1 when he’s fit and first choice at his club.” Oliver Baumann, who only made his international debut last year at the age of 34, was most recently between the sticks for Germany – and suddenly there is also talk of a return for Neuer too.

Nagelsmann also has some tricky decisions to make up front. Kai Havertz has proven that he can play there, but he has mostly been deployed behind the main striker. That leaves Niclas Fullkrug, Tim Kleindienst, Deniz Undav, Jonathan Burkardt and Nick Woltemade as other options to lead the line, but nobody has yet made the position their own. With the other four struggling with injuries, only Woltemade was used in the recent FIFA World Cup™ qualifiers against Slovakia and Northern Ireland, but he failed to make a real impression in either game.

Having yielded a win and a loss apiece, the two recent qualifiers clearly showed that Germany are still a work in progress, but Nagelsmann has demonstrated in his first two years at the helm that he can instil a sense of enjoyment in the camp and successfully integrate new players into the fold.

Nagelsmann’s time with Germany will ultimately be measured by the team’s showing at next year’s World Cup – but they need to qualify first. As the coach put it, “We’re focusing on our momentum and concentrating on our own matches. These games were only 50% satisfactory; the next ones need to be 100%. We’ll try to win all four remaining matches so it’s in our own hands.”